Postgrad Med J. 2025 Jul 6:qgaf102. doi: 10.1093/postmj/qgaf102. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: This study aims to develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models to predict the likelihood of hospital readmission within 30 days after discharge for patients with heart failure (HF). The goal is to compare the predictive accuracy of ML models with traditional methods such as those based on Cox proportional hazards and logistic regression, to improve clinical outcomes and reduce hospital costs.
METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study of patients discharged from five hospitals following admission for HF. Data were collected on variables including sociodemographic characteristics, medical history, admission details, patient-reported outcomes, and clinical parameters. ML techniques were employed to analyse the data and predict readmission risk, incorporating strategies to handle class imbalance and missing data. Model performance was assessed based on accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and F1 score.
RESULTS: Ensemble methods with Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique balancing and bagging improved the predictive performance of ML models compared with traditional models. The best-performing ensemble model, using decision trees, Gaussian Naïve Bayes, and neural networks, achieved an AUC of 0.81. In contrast, Cox and logistic regression models showed significantly poorer performance (AUC of 0.58 and 0.50, respectively). SHapley Additive exPlanations analysis revealed that frailty, anxiety, and depression were critical in predicting readmission.
CONCLUSION: ML models, particularly those using ensemble methods, significantly outperform traditional models in predicting short-term readmission for patients with HF. These findings highlight the potential of ML to improve clinical decision-making and resource allocation in HF management.
PMID:40618282 | DOI:10.1093/postmj/qgaf102